"New Cold War" in Iran
The BBC have finally figured out what I have been talking about for some time now - the New Cold War
It is more than a war of words.It is an arcane game of overt and covert activity, complex regional manoeuvring and trade-offs - and the occasional hint of gunboat diplomacy.
This week the head of Iranian counter-espionage described his officials' efforts to thwart spying networks they'd uncovered in seven of Iran's provinces.
In Washington as in Tehran, there are different centres of power pursuing their own hawkish or dovish agendas
The official, who by tradition is not named by the Iranian media, linked these networks to countries with troops in Iraq - in other words, the United States and Britain.
He implied they were playing on ethnic divisions in Iran, especially in sensitive border areas.
Such allegations are, by definition, hard to prove or disprove.
But what's clear is that American pressure on Iran is not confined to UN sanctions designed to dissuade it from the pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Other US pressures include:
* the use of "soft power" (broadcasting, cultural exchange, the promotion of democracy and human rights) to try to influence Iranian public opinion
* efforts to coax somewhat ambivalent Arab states to join an anti-Iranian regional alliance
* the Seizure of Iranian officials who are, in American eyes, stirring up trouble in Iraq
* according to report, the US has been conducting covert operations inside Iran
ABC News has reported that President Bush has authorised the CIA to carry out a series of covert measures to destabilise Iran.
These range from propaganda to the manipulation of Iranian currency and banking transactions.
Iran is resorting to various means of counter-pressure, including:
* the arrest of Iranian-Americans it accuses of spying
* strengthening ties with the Arab world by, for example, offering to restore diplomatic relations with Egypt
* maintaining a drum-beat of rhetoric against the American presence in Iraq and the Gulf, plus - and this may be Tehran's strongest card - maintaining an intricate network of contacts in Iraq which could potentially be used to target US troops or US interests
As I said before
The Cold War was a war of propaganda and counter propaganda, intense diplomatic maneuvering, along with the use of economic pressure and selective aid - accompanied by the biggest arms race the world has ever seen. At the same time a “covert war” used espionage, intimidation, selective military aid, attempted assassination, low intensity military operations and wars by proxy states.New Cold War or only New Cold War vs the Islamic states?
Or maybe they are just proxies - and the "New Cold War" is the same old "Cold War" with the same old players and different proxy agents?
Only time will tell ...
Tags: cold war, russia, iran, nuclear threat, islam