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How much smuggled radioactive material has actually been seized by the authorities ?

The Times has a story apparently based on figures from the International Atomic Energy Authority, about attempts to smuggle illegal radioactive materials.

We are very sceptical that the figures presented in the article are evidence of a real threat of a "dirty bomb" :

Seizures of radioactive materials fuel 'dirty bomb' fears By Lewis Smith, Environment Reporter

SEIZURES of smuggled radioactive material capable of making a terrorist “dirty bomb” have doubled in the past four years, according to official figures seen by The Times.

[...]

There are figures for hundreds of "foiled plots", but most of these are probably various kinds of undercover "sting" operations, and con tricks by criminals, rather than actual smuggling attempts of real quantities of dangerously radioactive materials.

The important statistics about exactly how much radioactive material was actually physically seized from the smugglers, and exactly how radioactive it was, in terms of Bequerels (Bq) or Curies (Ci) of radioactivity, is, mysteriously not reported by The Times.

Seizures of radioactive materials fuel 'dirty bomb' fears By Lewis Smith, Environment Reporter

SEIZURES of smuggled radioactive material capable of making a terrorist “dirty bomb” have doubled in the past four years, according to official figures seen by The Times.

[...]

There are figures for hundreds of "foiled plots", but most of these are probably various kinds of undercover "sting" operations, and con tricks by criminals, rather than actual smuggling attempts of real quantities of dangerously radioactive materials.

The important statistics about exactly how much radioactive material was actually physically seized from the smugglers, and exactly how radioactive it was, in terms of Bequerels (Bq) or Curies (Ci) of radioactivity, is, mysteriously not reported by The Times.

Last year, Western security services, including MI5 and MI6, thwarted 16 attempts to smuggle plutonium or uranium. On two occasions small quantities of highly enriched uranium were reported missing

[...]

There were 103 cases of illicit trafficking last year, compared with fewer than 30 in 1996. Fifty-eight incidents were reported in 2002, rising to 90 in 2003 and 130 in 2004. Experts point out that seizures in the past three years equal the same amount of trafficking in the previous seven years.

[...]

Seizures have continued this year, though overall figures for 2006 are not yet available. They include the discovery in Germany of a small quantity of highly enriched uranium

[...]

Has there even been enough radioactive material for a "dirty hand grenade" let alone a large radiological "dirty bomb" which might allow terrorists or criminals to threaten to temporararily contaminate a large area of a city with ?

On the evidence presented in the article, it would seem not.

One of the most serious seizures since 9/11 was that of several kilograms of a radioactive substance known as yellow cake that was found in a consignment of scrap metal at the port of Rotterdam in December 2003.

"Yellow cake" is the semi-processed product of uranium ore mines, and is not that radioactive at all, since the percentage of the radioactive isotope 235U is only about 0.7%, with the rest being the non-radioactive 238U. Most actual "yellow cake" still contains 20 or 20% of inert mineral rock impurities, so the amount of radioactive material in any volume of it is proprotionately less.

Producing enriched uranium from "yellow cake" for nuclear power station fuel rods (3.5 to 4.0 % 235U in oxide form) or atomic bomb grade Uranium metal (>80% 235U) requires billions of pounds worth of equipment and the scientific and engineering resources of a nation state.

It is safe enough to be shipped in steel drums virtually identical to oil barrels, and it featured in the the fake alleged plot by Saddam Hussein to purchase hundreds of tons of it from the African republic of Niger. The investigation of this dubious plot led to the illegal breach of security by naming an active CIA agent for political reasons by various White House aides and spin doctors.

See Slate magazine's
What is yellowcake anyway ?

"Several kilograms" of "yellow cake" is nowhere near enough to constitute a major health hazard and to be of any use in a "dirty bomb" , whose effects might exceed those of the actual explosives need to disperse it further than you can throw it.

The fear that a smuggling pipeline of illicit radioactive material could, if unchecked, eventually, supply enough dangerous material to terrorists or criminals, is a real one, but this is not as likely as other possible terrorist attacks.

It is far, far easier to detect radioactive material in transit, than it is to detect explosives or chemical or biological weapons.

Exaggerating the threat of a "dirty bomb", with these figures, and with fiascos like the imaginary Red Mercury trial, is only helping extremists, and presumably vested commercial and political interests, to terrorise the public.

Comments


The numbers in the Times piece appear to tally with those in the current issue of the IAEI bulletin:

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/Bull481/pdfs/nuclear_security.pdf

Says here, "Eighteen of the confirmed incidents in 2005 involved nuclear materials, 76 involved radioactive material, mainly radioactive sources, two involved both nuclear and other radioactive materials, and seven involved radioactively contaminated materials."

For a total of 103. Two "small quantities" of HEU were mislaid by the US and Japanese respectively. There's some more detail here:

http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Features/RadSources/PDF/fact_figures2005.pdf

But there are just those two 'butterfingers' incidents listed for 2005, against several of smuggling for previous years. I can't see a specific breakdown of smuggling incidents versus cockups, but there's some info on the nature of the material, and a lot of it seems not entirely unadjacent to luminous watch faces. Load of bollocks, if you ask me. (-:


Tim Worstall, who deals in rare metals from the ex- Soviet Union etc. when not blogging, is also sceptical

http://timworstall.typepad.com/timworstall/2006/10/nuclear_smuggli.html



Found this great quote summing up the tone of the article:

"It’s the terrorists are coming to kill us all with a dirty bomb so buy our paper while you still have eyes! tone."

From


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