News of Future

13.2 Million Americans Have Alzheimer

2010-02-28T11:45:03Z

February 28, 2050 - An estimated 13.2 million Americans currently have Alzheimer's disease. The number of people with Alzheimer has tripled during the last 45 years although the general US population has only increased during the same period by 45%. The reason is mainly due to the aging population; about 60% of those who have Alzheimer are 85 years or older.]]> Alzheimer's disease is the most common form of dementia among older people. It involves the parts of the brain that control thought, memory, and language. Alzheimer is an irreversible disorder, and even though progress has been made in detecting the disease at an earlier stage, for earlier diagnosis and prevention efforts, there is still no cure.

So how can you tell if someone you know have begun to develop Alzheimer? Usually it starts with slight forgetfulness. Then the person asks the same question over and over again and repeats the same story, word for word. The person can also forget recent events and how to do simple tasks.

Argument: According to National Institutes of Health in the US, 13.2 million Americans will have Alzheimer's disease by 2050, while the US population by then will be 419 million (US Census Bureau).

Questions: Since a lot of stress is put on families where a person has been diagnosed with Alzheimer, what will this increase in people with Alzheimer do to the society in general, when a higher percentage of the population has to become caregivers?

What if an AIDS Vaccine was Approved this Evening...

2010-02-23T20:53:54Z

February 23, 2020 - As you probably know there is still no HIV/AIDS vaccine approved now in 2020, but what would happen if one was approved already later this evening? Will it stop the spreading of the virus and eliminate the disease? Well, not right away... ]]> First of all, if you later today hear that a vaccine has been approved, you definitely would have heard that it was on the way for approval a long time ago. With the two current vaccines in final trials (Phase III trials) only halfway so far, there is another 4-5 years before that could occur.

Since it takes several years to set up production facilities for a new vaccine, the companies and institutions behind the two vaccines in final trials are already building them to stand ready if granted an approval. Despite huge investments in facilities that might not be used for the purpose, they will in no way be sufficient for the demand of the vaccine. Therefore, new facilities have to be built, which will take 5-6 years from the approval, to be able to produce the vaccine needed.

It’s today globally recognized that the developer of an AIDS vaccine give up the exclusive rights for the most affected areas such as sub-Saharan Africa, developing Asia and Latin America, compensated by a small license fee from generic drug producers. This is also the case with the developers of the two vaccines in the final trials. The developers will however have the common patent rights for the rest of the world, where they will compete according to current market conditions.

For enough vaccine to be produced and distributed to stop the spread of the virus as quickly as possible, hopes are set to the global guarantee fund for an approved AIDS vaccine. The purpose of the fund is to secure funding for additional production facilities, the production and distribution of the vaccine to a first priority population of about 800 million people, clear the rights thereof and other costs related, once a vaccine has been approved.

The fund is supported by donors, foundations and governments, but has so far only been granted total guarantees of US$16 billion, of the US$28 billion requested. Even though the governmental guarantors of the fund have agreed not to take the guaranteed amounts from their regular aid support, skeptics claim that that anyway will be the case once the vaccine is approved, or they will not supply the guaranteed amounts as promised.

If the governments use their regular aid support to finance the fund, it can cause severe implications for people in critical need in other areas. It can also directly or indirectly harm organizations on which the distribution of an AIDS vaccine is depending.

The governmental guarantors from less affected areas, will also have to deal with providing the vaccine to their own citizens to a much higher price per immunization course. This will however be done through subsidies where the patient bare some of the cost.

Considered that the funding reach the target in time for the vaccine approval, will we come to a quick stop of the virus? No vaccine is 100% effective, and the first generation AIDS vaccine might only reach a 50% efficiency. So even with full production and distribution, we need further research and development for a more efficient vaccine, which will take years before it can be approved.

With a 50% effective vaccine given to 30% of the population could cut the number of new HIV infections in the developing world by more than half in 15 years. This will mean that if a vaccine was approved later this evening, more than 1 million people will still be infected around the year 2040 (remember new facilities were needed for extensive production and takes some years to build). So with this in mind, HIV/AIDS will still be around for probably half a century after they announce an approval of a vaccine.

Since we have been aware of HIV/AIDS now for about 40 years (it was widely recognized in 1981) what else could we have done to better prepare ourselves for a vaccine approval? There are now programs in schools in the US and other parts of the developed world, where the students are in regular contact during three years with schools in the worst affected areas. The sponsored program also include a trip for the students to meet with their far away friends.

This has given the students a better knowledge of the occurrence of HIV/AIDS and how it affect people in their own age in their daily lives. Surveys among the students also shows that they have developed a better understanding of people from other cultures, a much more generous approach to people in need, and even gained better self confidence.

If these programs had been around in 1995 at the peak of US casualties from AIDS, several decision makers now in their 40s, would have been engaged students. This would have left them with AIDS consciousness in their spines, with a better understanding, will to support research etc. and also passing it on to their peers. This release of brain resources in the developed world could have made a big difference in the strive for the AIDS vaccine.

The best way to stop the spreading of the virus is still information of how to protect yourself from getting it or pass it along, and to help the infected, highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) help you stay alive. Although the vast efforts over the last decades, estimates suggests that until year 2030, a total of 180 million people worldwide will have died from AIDS, since it was recognized.

Don’t expect to hear the news later this evening that an AIDS vaccine has been approved. But if you do, it doesn’t mean that the struggle is over, it is only entering a new phase.

Argument: Estimations for the production of an initial AIDS vaccine is based on Breaking the bottleneck by Sheri Fink, MD, PhD. The effect of a first generation AIDS vaccine is based on Estimating the Impact of an AIDS Vaccine in Developing Countries from the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative.

Questions: In what other ways can we prepare for the day when an AIDS vaccine might be available, for it to reach people as quickly as possible? Can we release resources from the developed world in any other ways to help the most affected areas?

China has Passed the US as the World's Largest Economy

2010-02-21T10:29:36Z

February 21, 2040 - Analysts report that China passed the US as the largest economy in the world last year. With a nominal GDP* of US$29,300 billion for year 2039, China is ahead of US with more than US$500 billion. China has tenfold their GDP over the last 35 years.]]> The US was the world’s largest economy for about a century, since the British Empire suffered severely in the Second World War. China can now look for a reign on the throne for about 30-40 years before the currently fastest growing major economy, India, is likely to surpass them. India became the world’s third largest economy in year 2034 with the help of their growing population and will challenge the size of the US economy in a decade.

Even though China has passed the US in total, the US is still by far the nation with the biggest GDP per capita with US$73,830, followed by Japan, United Kingdom and France, among the largest economies in the world. China, as the second most populous country in the world, has a GDP per capita of US$20,610, more than twice as much as India on US$8,180.

Argument: The numbers are based on the report Brazil, Russia, India and China - A Road in 2050 by Goldman Sachs, but have been revised according to the latest GDP data in the World Economic Outlook (September 2006 edition) from the International Monetary Fund.

Questions: What impact will China have on the rest of the world with a tenfold increase of the Chinese economy? How will the Chinese culture affect other parts of the world, compared to for instance the American culture today?

*Nominal Gross Domestic Product measures the value of all goods and services produced in a country expressed in current prices.

Hot Gadget: Speed Up Your Home With 4 THz

2010-02-14T10:26:35Z

February 14, 2025 - Today is the release of the first home computer with the new 4 THz microprocessor, currently the highest performing processor available. Several analysts have doubted of the need of the 4THz processor for the home market, but the pre-sale for the last couple of weeks look positive according to the manufacturer.]]> The computer has the 100TB memory drive that became standard about 5 years ago, basically because the lack of interest in more storage for home computers. It's nice that they have included 1,000 movies in the package but as you can guess they are not the latest releases.

It has 512 GB RAM memory, the size of the box is 10.3" x 7.9" x 1.2" (WxDxH) and it is of course compatible with all the wireless screens that you have at home. The introduction price is set to US$ 399.

Argument: According to Moore's Law the number of transistors that could be placed on a computer chip would double every 18 months which has been the case since the 1970s. Gordon Moore has though revised his law since then which could give us a microprocessor of 4 THz by 2025.

Questions: Will there be need for more than 100 TB storage memory for the home market? What else can drive the development of home computers than moving images, as in movies and games?

TalkTalk - the Search Engine of the Future

2010-02-07T10:22:45Z

February 7, 2035 - After a lot of hush-hush for several years the much longed for search engine TalkTalk was presented to the press this week. One day talking basically made me speechless; the future has never looked brighter in finding information.]]> TalkTalk will open to the public next week and this service will be something that you will use more than you can imagine. For the first time you can not only talk to the search engine, you can discuss with it what you are looking for.

If you want to know more about the oil price, TalkTalk asks if you want to know the current oil price, the development of the oil price, or news related to the oil price. You say that you want to read news about it and TalkTalk asks you if you prefer a certain source (information that is stored for you if you want). TalkTalk then direct you to your source, or let you have the latest news related to the oil price in order from the most respected sources.

If you are looking for a certain person, you say his name, and TalkTalk will ask you what you know about him, is he alive, where is he working, is he publicly known etc. Then it asks you what you want to know and easily guide you to a website to find the information. This has made the search possible for a person named Gary Smith which has been impossible through previous search services.

Compared to other search services that uses a certain algorithm to provide data from a search, the artificial intelligence behind TalkTalk is said to easily spot if a certain source is aiming to deceive the searcher. TalkTalk also evaluates and stores every given reply and discussion, to learn how to give even more precise answers. How well this will work in the long run is yet to be seen, but thousands of people have challenged TalkTalk to tune it in before the launch, and the quality is remarkably good.

The first talking search engine saw the light of day more than 30 years ago and was called Speegle. It could read you the results from a written search on the Internet, and was more for the visually handicapped. TalkTalk is there for you 24/7 just a phone call away and on the Internet.

So far, TalkTalk can not read the information from a certain source to you by phone, if it is not in the public domain or freely available. There are currently negotiations to find an arrangment for this, but it would most likely be difficult due to copyright, and to secure an income for the publisher.

TalkTalk is also set to answer questions directly where there is a definite answer. So I called the phone service and it replied "TalkTalk, how may I help you?" I said "Which is the most populous nation in the world?" and before I was ready to take down the answer, it replied "India...anything else?"

Several new features are in the works, licensed from the same artificial intelligence technology. It is more detailed services like how to repair your car, a joker that have thousands of jokes to cheer you up, and the giant project to let everyone have access to a therapist with the same knowledge about the human mind as any experienced therapist.

TalkTalk is accessible over Internet and also by phone for all major territories, even though it only talks English. There are no plans to add other languages in the near future, most likely beacuse the giant investments needed. When you are tired of asking TalkTalk all your questions, just ask, "Where is TalkTalk?" and you will get an answer that will make you leave it with a smile on your lips.

Argument: Artificial intelligence will develop during year 2020-2030 and by then the computers are at the same level as the human brain. Today search engines are used frequently all over the world, and combined with artificial intelligence you will have a friend to talk to that can either give you answers to all the questions you have, or direct you to them.

Questions: What other services can use artificial intelligence? How will education change in the future if basically all knowledge is just a phone call away?

Antarctic Ozone Layer Soon to be Restored

2010-01-31T10:19:57Z

January 31, 2050 - Scientists now believe that the ozone layer over Antarctic will in 15 years be basically restored to the level it had in 1980. This will mean a great victory for international co-operation when it comes to the reduction of ozone-depleting gases.]]> In January 1989, the Montreal Protocol came in effect eventually signed by more than 160 nations, which included a timetable on which the production of several groups of halogenated hydrocarbons had to stop.

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were in 1974 recognized by Mario Molina and Sherry Rowland, chemists at the University of California, as harmful to the Earth's ozone layer, even though production of CFCs had started already in the 1920s. They were awarded with the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1995 due to their work.

The hole in the ozone layer over Antarctic covered at its worst an area bigger than Canada 45 years ago. The depletion varies over the seasons, but accelerate when the sunlight comes back after the winter.

Argument: According to the study When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover, the ozone layer will in year 2068 be restored to the level it had 1980.

Please note: This article is an updated version based on new research. You find the old article if you click here.

Millionth Gay Marriage in the US

2010-01-24T10:17:05Z

January 24, 2025 - On Saturday, Jane Wilson and Darla Schwartz will get married in front of their 28 guests at a church in their hometown Stockton, California. Their wedding will however attract some extra attention, since it will be the one-millionth gay marriage in the US.]]> Same-sex marriages were first allowed in the state of Massachusetts already in 2004, but since the marriages did not get federal recognition, the happy couples were not entitled to the federal benefits. But since the bill passed seven years ago with the federal support of gay marriages, they have the same rights as any other marriage couple.

Currently there are 20 states that recognize same-sex marriages, where about 140,000 wedding certificates were filed last year. Another 12 states allow civil unions, of which some most likely will accept marriages in the near future. The statistics is not that precise to know exactly where the millionth gay marriage will take place so Jane and Darla's wedding is more a symbolic choice based on estimations by gay organizations.

Jane and Darla have been seeing each other for five months and are looking forward to the Saturday wedding to be followed by a couple of weeks off to Hawaii. "It was meant to be a nice little wedding with our closest friends but of course we are happy to be a part of the progress of gay rights", says Darla.

Jane contributed to the gay marriage statistics four years ago in a relationship that ended in a divorce 18 months later. "This time I feel that is so right, Darla is the one I want to share my future with", she says smiling.

Argument: The number one million is based on a federal approval of same-sex marriages with federal benefits by 2018, the gay marriage rate of Massachusetts, and other relevant data.

Questions: What affects will gay marriages in general have on society? Will an approval of gay marriages make way for the gay population in general and in what way?

Pamela Holds the Future in Her Newly Grown Hand

2010-01-22T09:04:21Z

January 22, 2040 - Former French karate champion Pamela de Robien lost her left hand in a car accident and saw her career being shattered. With regeneration her hand has now grown back and she is heading for the Olympics later this year.]]> It was a late evening in December 2038 and Pamela was driving from her home in Aubagne, just outside Marseille in France, to her parents to celebrate Christmas. A trailer from a truck slid over to the wrong side of the road and Pamela got away severely bruised with left hand crushed.

“When I got over the immediate shock from the accident my first thought was that my career in karate was over. Already in the emergency at the hospital I was told that it could grow back again. They even told me that I could go back to karate in the future, but I didn’t believe them”, Pamela says.

After surgical and medical treatment her left hand has now grown back and is fully functioning, just 13 months after the accident. She went back to training after 6 months, with just the stump with five small bumps. Now all the fingers are in the same size as on the right hand so she can perform a correct haito.

Before hand regeneration became common the solution for a person to get a hand back was a hand transplant. It was a quite complicated procedure that was first successfully performed in 1998. The patient had to be on post operation drugs for long time and in some cases it didn’t work out, so the hand had to be removed. In total 152 hand transplants worldwide were performed until the last one in year 2023.

Regeneration had been known with animals for a long time, but it wasn’t until the beginning of this century that breakthroughs were made in humans. We have always been able to grow back a fingertip by ourselves, but by copying how some animals did it, it was transferable to humans.

Pamela is now in full training to fight her way back in to the French karate team for the Olympics later this year in Abuja, Nigeria. “I’m so very fortunate to be able to do this when looking at the pictures of what was left of my hand after the accident. To be able to step in to an Olympic arena representing my country would definitely show that everything is possible!”

Argument: Progress in the understanding of regeneration in mammals gives hope of humans being able to regrow organs and other parts of the body. Ellen Heber-Katz, Ph.D. at the Wistar Institute predicts that we will able to do limb regeneration in a near future. Karate is one of the sports to most likely be added to the Olympics and might be so by year 2020. Even though the safety on the roads will increase by 2040, it will not completely stop accidents to occur.

Questions: Is regeneration a solution for humans to stop aging? What ethical issues are there to regenerate organs?

1 Million Hydrogen-Fueled Cars in the US

2010-01-19T10:12:43Z

January 19, 2035 - According to the latest statistics presented this week, 1 million hydrogen-fueled cars have now been sold in the US. The figures for last year show an increase in sales by 50% from 2033. ]]> The hydrogen fleet is still dominated by hydrogen-hybrids even though several fuel cell models have been introduced in the market during the last couple of years. The price for a hydrogen-hybrid is still about 20% higher than for a regular gasoline-hybrid, which make it more expensive to own and drive. The reason for the sale increase is more related to the hydrogen hype for environmental purposes, although mainly all hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels, like natural gas.

The latest environmental effort is the introduction of the Re-Hydro label last year to stimulate the production of hydrogen produced through electrolysis, based on a source of 100% renewable energy. The production is still quite limited and it is only available at selected stations. The current price is about 10% over the regular price for hydrogen, and will most likely not have a major impact until more producers switch from regular production to Re-Hydro.

The transition to hydrogen in the US is moving slow compared to a country like Iceland where already 80% of the car fleet runs on hydrogen. They are planning to set a date of when to shut down the last gasoline pump on Iceland, and it looks like it will be around the year 2040. When that day arrives in the US it will mean a lot to the global environment.

Argument: The development of hydrogen-fueled is based on several different sources, with the optimistic scenarios for a fast introduction on the market, to the book The Hype about Hydrogen by Joseph J. Romm. Except from the development in technology and the production and distribution of hydrogen, the price of gasoline will be the key to how fast hydrogen alternatives will reach a mass market.

Questions: Will there be other fuel alternatives to hydrogen when gasoline will be replaced?

Dentists Keep the Smile

2010-01-16T19:29:14Z

January 16, 2025 - The toothwash has now passed toothpaste in market share in the US with even more effective products in the works. The fear some dentists might have felt of losing their job when the toothwash entered the market seems so far to be unfounded.]]> Based on new development in microbiology the toothwash was seen as a revolution when introduced, preventing the dental caries from even getting established. Now people only wash their teeth once a day instead of the previous recommendation of brushing the teeth two times a day and flossing. The most popular kind of toothwash is the one including tooth whitening.

The result from the toothwash was stunning, when used as recommended reduced the prevalence of dental caries by up to 50% compared to tooth paste. Barry Fair, a practicing dentist from Lansdale, Pennsylvania gives an explanation of the slow transition to toothwash although the exceptional result: “We recommend people to use the toothwash instead, but people in general are used to brush their teeth with paste and as long as they don’t have any major problems they continue with that. Families with small children are the easiest one to convert to toothwash." The 20% higher price for toothwash for the daily use is most likely playing a role too.

Toothpaste was the king in the dental care shelf of the grocery stores for almost a century, after people gave up on tooth powder about the same time as fluoride was added to tooth paste. Even though suggested by dentists, floss never really made it through to the US public. Only about 50% of the population flossed regularly and 10-15% on daily basis according to surveys at the time.

As of year 2024 there were 185,600 professionally active dentists in the US, compared to 175,700 dentists 20 years ago. There has been a greater demand for dentists with a growing and aging population, but in the same time technological and biological developments have made dentistry more efficient. The need for a regrowth of dentists has been steady though since 50,000 dentists have gone in to retirement over the last two decades.

“Due to the praise of toothwash when introduced in the market, and the way it was marketed as doing wonders, I think people in general relied to much on it. The result was that in some cases people just washed their teeth once a week and that definitely gives you poor result”, Barry Fair says. “I’m not worried about looking for a new job in the future because at least when it come to caries, there will be enough to do as long as people don’t wash their teeth properly at least once a day, and don’t eat too many times between the regular meals.”

Argument: The development in microbiology will give more efficient products in dental care with better protection and easier maintenance. The numbers given of flossing and current dentists in the US comes from the American Dental Association.

Questions: Will it be possible to include the necessary preventing substances in the food that we eat, so we don’t have to think about dental care? What can other inventions in dental care result in?

Oil Price to Reach US$ 350 in Near Future

2010-01-12T10:00:39Z

January 12, 2020 - Even though the oil price crossed another barrier earlier this week with US$ 320 a barrel, we have probably not seen the end of it. With the stumbling of the world's current oil production even higher oil prices are to expect in the future. ]]> When Saudi Arabia officially announced in 2010 that the oil production in Ghawar, the biggest oil field in the world, was significantly decreasing, the price for a barrel passed US$ 200. The current total world production of oil is 91 million barrels a day. To get down to the same oil price as before 2010, adjusted for inflation, an estimated world production increase of about 10% is needed.

This can only be achieved in three deposits in the world, Green River Oil Shale in the US, Athabasca Oil Sand in Canada, or Orinoco Oil Sand in Venezuela. However, all of them are extremely stressed at the moment with full capacity, which prevent them from increasing production for a lower oil price.

Some people also set their hopes for an increased output of the drilling in the deepwaters of the Gulf of Mexico. However, since the start of the production six years ago, it has not reached a substantial level to make a significant impact on the oil supply.

Even though the production eventually will increase at these sites, it will not match the current loss of production at conventional oil fields in the world, which means that we have passed the peak of world oil production. This will increase the oil price even more in the near future, some analysts believe it can reach as high as US$ 350 a barrel before the year ends. Hopes that were earlier set to find new reserves is now basically only focused on more efficient output from the three major sites.

US has made giant investments during the last decade in the Green River deposit, which is projected to reach a production of 1.6 million barrels a day this year. Since that is still not enough, US put a constant pressure on Canada for a higher output from Athabasca of another 1 million barrels a day, apart from current production of 3.7 million.

US is the country that consumes most oil in the world with about 22.5 million barrels a day. 71% of the total oil consumption in the US is used for transportation, which includes gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and residual fuel oil. Gasoline has been the dominant oil product for almost a century, and 40% of all oil consumed in the US end up in a fuel tank of a car.

The main adjustment to a higher oil price in the last decade has been the shift to less gasoline consuming cars, but so far only about 10% of the American car fleet consist of hybrids. The main reason for the slow transition to a more fuel-efficient fleet is still the lack of a competitive fuel to gasoline.

China is also suffering heavily from the high oil price for their economic growth. Analysts say an oil price at US$ 350 sets back their growth rate with 1.0% of GDP per year compared to the oil price before the Saudi Arabian peak. Even though China has more than doubled their oil consumption during the last 20 years, they are still per capita only using 2.7 barrels per year, compared to 24.4 for the US.

Argument: The world oil production is based on forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Association for the Study of Peak Oil, and other relevant data. For the output of Athabasca consideration have been taken to numbers from the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, and the output of Green river is revised information from the study Oil Shale Development in the United States from Rand Corporation. With such a high oil price, heavily investments will most likely be made in the exploration of existing deposits of oil sand and oil shale. Predictions of the output of the deepwaters of the Gulf of Mexico are from The Oil Drum.

Questions: What other effects will the increasing oil price have on the everyday life? How will the developing countries manage when they will not afford to buy the oil needed and don't have the resources for alternatives?

Please note: This article is an updated version based on new development. You find the old article if you click here.

Fooling Arnold Made a Clean Sweep in Saturday Ratings

2010-01-08T13:52:37Z

January 8, 2035 - With a first prize of seven million US dollar and the intriguing plot of trying to fool or outsmart Arnold, the most advanced artificial intelligence in public use, the much hyped live show “Fooling Arnold” became the people’s choice this Saturday.]]> If you haven’t seen the show yet, it takes place in an ancient castle where eight people should solve different tasks while constantly conversing with Arnold. The contestants should try to convince or fool Arnold to believe certain facts about them. The viewers can take part during the show to tell if a person is lying or not, and also find out how Arnold is reasoning.

The four worst liars spotted by Arnold from each show have to leave and is replaced by the four best lying-spotting viewers who are flown in to the show the following week, giving their best shot to fool Arnold. More than 32 million people was reported to watch the show live this Saturday and of them 5 million took part in figuring out the lying scheme.

The extraordinary prize amount is sponsored by the consortium of companies behind the Arnold technology. They are hoping that the publicity around the show will give them a good return on their investment, when aiming towards the media market to make different Arnolds host radio and TV shows.

But they are playing a somewhat dangerous game putting more than the money on the line. What happens if Arnold is not able to spot the liars? Then there wouldn’t be much of interest in Arnold. It is a bit to early to say after just one show, but hopefully they have done their homework testing Arnold before they went all in.

Arnold is of course analyzing the response from the public and with 5 million opinions of who is lying and when this Saturday, Arnold got a pretty good input for one day’s work. This regular weekly input and the evaluation of it is a guarantee for Arnold to not make a fool of himself in the show.

Several parent groups have protested in various media before the premiere of the show. They object to the connection between such a high reward and the fact that you win it by being the best liar. They are afraid that kids should start the game with each other and in a more extended way accept lying in their daily communication.

The producers behind the show defend it with that the task for Arnold, as well as the viewers, is to spot the liars. If people get better in spotting liars, there will be less room for lying, which would result in the opposite effect.

Argument: Artificial intelligence will develop rapidly during year 2020-2030 and by then the computers are at the same level as the human brain. The communication with that intelligence can then be used for entertainment to create new TV show formats. Even though all TV shows will be available whenever you would like to watch them in year 2035, there will still be live shows like “Fooling Arnold” where the viewers can participate in the show from home.

Questions: What other new TV formats can be considered based on artificial intelligence or new technologies? What other new entertainment channels can become available with this new technology?

1 Billion Mobile Phone Users in China

2010-01-05T09:57:18Z

January 5, 2020 - China will this month reach the 1 billion mark for mobile phone users, three times as many as 15 years ago. The market for mobile phones in China is bigger than Europe, US and Japan combined and about 80% of the Chinese population now has a mobile phone.]]> The worldwide use of mobile phones will most likely reach another significant mark later this year, when passing 5 billion mobile phone users, about 65% of the world’s population.

India is still the country adding most users in the world each month and will most likely pass China in total number of mobile phone users within the next 10 years, from their current 910 million.

China also has the most Internet users in the world, 400 million, and their impact on the Internet has been noticed significantly over the last years. One reason for this, a part from the number of users is the number of English-speaking Chinese, which has increased to almost match the native English speakers in the world.

Argument: Chinese economist Lin Yifu estimate that there will 1 billion mobile phone users in China by year 2020, up from 449 million users in October 2006.

Questions: 4G is to be introduced on the market in Japan. How many mobile users in China will be using 4G in 2020? Will the increase in English-speaking Chinese more benefit the Chinese that wants to do business abroad, or people abroad that wants to do business in China?

Is there a Future for Live Newscasters?

2009-12-20T14:28:18Z

December 20, 2030 - The launch yesterday of the virtual realistic-looking human newscaster from Simple News gained rave reviews. Others have made several attempts earlier, but this sends the live newscasters in to a pretty shaky future.]]> Personalized presented news started to get popular with the spread and development of various online services 30 years ago. With the increase in television over Internet in the past decade, broadcasted news based on your own interests, international or local within any areas, with digital presenters have become the most popular way to consume news.

News shows with live newscasters have been around since the birth of network broadcasting in the 1940s, but have lately lead a languishing life next to the new trends. To have “real” people present the news has for some though been a guarantee of the authenticity of the news.

The technical and commercial success of the movie “Tickle” in year 2020 proved the possibilities to animate realistic-looking humans. The development of animated simultaneous lip-syncing has been the key to make an animated person trustworthy as a news anchor. Combining this with the latest text-to-speech technology makes Simple News’ version the most attracting so far. You can choose what kind of presenter you would like in regards to age, sex, race etc and there are also some celebrity presenters to choose from, like real presenters, actors and athletes.

Since we humans are so well trained to see human behavior in detail when it comes to movements, facial expressions etc, a combination with the trust and authority needed from a news anchor, have maybe made this the most challenging task in animation.

So, does this mean the end to live newscasters or do they have a future? There will probably be people that will continue to prefer the live newscasters for the knowledge of having a real person delivering them. But in the long run and with a wider spread of services like this, the live newscasters will be pushed aside to a small niche that eventually most likely will fade away.

The development of artificial intelligence also suggests a more interactive communication with news services in the near future, where you as a viewer will be able to ask the presenter questions related to the news, to get the background information that you feel is relevant to the news. This feedback from the viewer will also trigger the news service to update the viewer’s profile to deliver the news in an even more specific and personalized way next time.

Argument: News services are moving towards more automatically aggregated personalized news. This in combination with the increasing speed of processing information and decreasing cost will make it possible for virtual realistic-looking human newscasters. An example on an aggregated service for the future is News at Seven.

Questions: What other features can the technology of virtual realistic-looking humans be used for? Can there be any negative effects of such a development?

Another Great Year for Wind Power

2009-12-18T08:36:46Z

December 18, 2020 - This year shows strong growth for wind power when the total global installed capacity added a record 62,000 MW, making the total capacity more than 480,000 MW. Wind power is by far the renewable source with the largest growth in worldwide capacity during the last decade. ]]> The US was quite slow adopting wind power compared to many European countries, but passed Germany as the biggest producer of wind power in the world in year 2013. US now has a capacity of 84,000 MW compared to 48,000 MW for Germany. China was the country with the strongest growth related to the total capacity, adding another 25% and still the third biggest producer in the world with 30,000 MW installed.

US is though behind Europe when it comes to wind power as part of the total electricity demand, serving only 6%, compared to 12,7% for Europe. Denmark is with 40% still the country with the highest share of wind energy, most likely reaching 50% within the next five years. Even though wind power as a renewable resource has its environmental advantages, the increasing demand for wind power is related to the low cost for the energy output, pressed down with more efficient larger wind turbines and the maturity of the market.

The trend in the last decade of wind energy has been towards more offshore sites. In Europe, offshore now counts for about 19% of all wind power capacity, compared to less than 2% 15 years ago. The already projected wind farms give a forecast of about 50% of the total European capacity to be offshore by year 2030.

Argument: Wind power has had a strong growth during the last decade and will continue to. The numbers are from the European Wind Energy Association, the American Wind Energy Association, the Danish Wind Industry Association, the German WindEnergy Association.